区域滑坡灾害预测预警与风险评价.pdfVIP

14 6 ( ( ) ; ) Vol. 14 No. 6 2007 11 Earth Science Frontiers ( Chin a University of Geosciences, Beijin ; Pekin University) Nov. 2007 1 1 2 殷坤龙 , 陈丽霞 , 张桂荣 1 ( ) , 430074 2 , 210029 1 1 2 Yin Kunlon , Chen Lix ia , Zhan Guiron 1Eng inee ring Fac ulty , China Univ er sity of G eosc ienc es, Wuhan 430074, China 2N anj ing H y d rau lic Resear ch Inst itute , N anj ing 210029, China Yin Kunlong, Chen Lixia, Zhang Guirong. Regional landslide hazard warning and risk assessment. Earth Science Frontiers , 2007, 1 (6) : 085097 Abstract: Re ional landslide hazard prediction and warnin is still a difficult problem and hot topic in the re search of landslide hazards. In the past decade, research w as mainly focused on the analysis of t he combination of rainfall and eolo ical environment. In t his paper , we summarize the current studies of landslide hazard pre diction and risk assessment, and propose that the combinat ion of hazard prediction w ith risk mana ement is not only the need for hazard prediction and prevent ion, but also the trend in the future. Basic theories are dis cussed from tw o aspects: the spatial prediction and time w arnin . Based on these theories, w e set up a land slide hazard information mana ement system and a realtime w arnin information releasin system, w hich is developeded on MapGIS platform. T akin landslides as ex amples in Yon jia City, Zhejian Province, durin the period of t yphoon Rananim of 2004, we have studied the spatial landslide hazard predict ion, life vulnerabil ity assessment and economic risk assessment. Key words: landslide hazard; W ebGIS; prediction and warnin ; risk assessment : 区域滑坡灾害预测预警是滑坡灾害研究领域的难点和热点过去 10 多年来在这方面的研究主要集 中在区域 雨与地质环境的结合方面文章总结了目前国内