上海房地产周期波动探究.pdf

Subject :TheStudyofrealestatecyclefluctuationinShanghai Specialty :MasterofBusinessAdministration(MBA) Name :LinFang （Signature） Instructor:TaozhuFeng （Signature） ABSTRACT Thestudyofreal estatecyclefluctuationsiscloselyrelatedtoresearch anddevelopmentof economictheoryandeconomicpractice activity,thereal estateindustryasapillarindustryof Shanghai economy develop rapidly in recent years, it made due contribution to Shanghais economic development. Research on real estate cycle fluctuation, especially research on Shanghairealestatecyclefluctuation,notonlyhelpsfurtherdiscussionofShanghairealestate cycle fluctuation phenomenon in theory, more help us to guide the healthy development of Shanghaisreal estateindustry inpractice. Shanghaireal estatecycle fluctuationresearch can provide reference basis for the governments macroeconomic regulation and control, timely usecounter-cyclicalpoliciesforthegovernmenttoadjusttherealestateindustry,sustainedand healthy development of real estate industry in Shanghai to provide theoretical basis and effective countermeasures. Therefore research on Shanghai real estate cycle fluctuations becomethetheoreticalcircleandindustryfacesanimportantsubject. This paper take Shanghai real estate industry as the research object, using theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis with the combination of research methods, build the Shanghai real estate cycle and economic cycle theoryanalysisframeworkofinteraction,mainlydiscussestheconnotationofrealestatecycle fluctuation, mechanism and main factors, and analyzes the relationship between economic cycle and the real estate cycle. Based on the principles of selection of Shanghai real estate fluctuation sentiment indicators, using the rich data to make an empirical analysis of the Shanghai real estate cycle fl