山东近期电力市场的探究.pdf

063025115卢兆军 山东省近期电力市场研究 Abstract aIld on marketisan for baSic、Ⅳorkbo也 Ana】ysesforecastingelec研city imponaIlt electric aIldelectric powerdeVelopment power plaIl m砌【eting．nis觚曲ponamt t0aSsure electric to ina prerequisite powerdeVelophealtlly、Vay thesituationofeconomicin a11dflorecaSts paperanalyses m【lningShalldongproVince t11eeconoIllic inthenear如ture．Theelectric m破etisaJSo deVelopmem power studiedSectorandsubsector in2006 by especiallyand2007．Themainf．actorsmat influencethe of are fortlle growtll electrici锣dem锄ddiscussed．ForecaSting in2008—2010havebeendone metllodssuch嬲 electric时demaIld byusingmaIly for value re铲ession趾aJ如cmmethod，consumingelectricityproductionmetllod，tilIle alld rate method，electric gro、树l memod．Ele嘶cloadis sequence elaStic时method 胡so time method锄dmost hours predictedby sequence uSing method．Throu曲 dia’erentmetllodsthe resultsareobtained．Theresultsbe ill synthetic caIl used forelectric decision·makingpo、ⅣerdeVelopment． demaIld economic 【K叻words】elec仃ici够market， forecaSting， aIlalysis，load ct娜acteristic，re伊ession趾alysis，sectoraIlalysis，electricelastic埘