浙江能源消费及构成对经济增长de影响研究;经济学毕业论文絮.docVIP

嘉兴学院南湖学院 （2011届） 毕业论文 题 目： 浙江能源消费及构成对经济增长的影响研究 姓　　名： 专　　业： 经 济 学 班　　级： 经 济 N072 摘 要 21世纪以来，浙江经济在稳定、健康、高速增长的同时带来了能源消费的快速增长，正确的认识并分析能源在经济增长中所扮演的角色，有助于更理性的把握浙江经济增长的态势，从而为浙江经济的健康增长提供借鉴。浙江能源消费及构成与经济增长之间的关系究竟如何呢？为了回答这个问题，本文采用浙江1990年—2009年的样本数据，基于浙江能源消费总量及其构成的基本情况，首先对浙江能源消费及构成与经济增长之间的关系进行了初步的描述性统计分析；然后运用现代的计量检验方法作进一步深入的定量分析，通过单位根检验、协整分析，得出能源消费总量及各构成均与经济增长存在长期的稳定的均衡关系；接着运用格兰杰因果检验方法发现，能源消费总量及其构成也都与经济增长之间存在单向的因果关系；最后在前面分析的基础上，有针对性地提出如何更好的提高能源的利用率，加快浙江经济增长的若干政策建议。 关键词：能源消费，经济增长，能源构成，协整检验 ABSTRACT Since the 21st century, energy consumption is growing rapidly in Zhejiang in stable, healthy and economic growth. Proper understanding and analysis of energy in economic growth in the role is helpful to more rational grasp of the economic growth of Zhejiang situation, and provides reference about healthy economic growth of Zhejiang. How is the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption and composition in Zhejiang? To answer this question, using the sample data during 1990-2009 and based on total energy consumption and its composition of Zhejiang, first of all, this paper gives a preliminary descriptive statistical analysis energy consumption and composition of Zhejiang and the relationship between economic growth; and then use the modern method of metrology test for further in-depth quantitative analysis, through the unit root test and cointegration analysis, it turns out the total energy consumption and economic growth and the composition there are long-term equilibrium relationship; then use Granger causality tests found that total energy consumption and its composition and economic growth are also one-way causality between; finally, based on the previous analysis, this paper proposes several relevant policy suggestions to improve the energy use rate and accelerate Zhejiangs economic growth. KEY WORDS: Energy consumption, Economic growth, Granger structure，o-integration test 目 录 摘 要 I ABSTRACT II 引 言 1 一、浙江能源消费与经济增长关系的描述性统计分析 1 （一）浙江能源消费及构成变化的基本情况 1 （二）浙江经济增长