Probabilistic drought classification using gamma mixture models》.pdf

Journal of Hydrology 526 (2015) 116–126 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Journal of Hydrology journal homepage: www.elsevi /locate/jhydrol Probabilistic drought classification using gamma mixture models Ganeshchandra Mallya a,⇑, Shivam Tripathi b, Rao S. Govindaraju a a School of Civil Engineering, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907, USA b Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur, UP 208016, India a r t i c l e i n f o s u m m a r y Article history: Drought severity is commonly reported using drought classes obtained by assigning pre-defined Available online 11 November 2014 thresholds on drought indices. Current drought classification methods ignore modeling uncertainties and provide discrete drought classification. However, the users of drought classification are often Keywords: interested in knowing inherent uncertainties in classification so that they can make informed decisions. Droughts Recent studies have used hidden Markov models (HMM) for quantifying uncertainties in drought Standardized Precipitation Index classification. The HMM method conceptualizes drought classes as distinct hydrological states that are Probabilistic SPI not observed (hidden) but affect observed hydrological variables. The number of drought classes or Probabilistic drought classification Gamma mixture models