Reconsidering the capacity credit of wind power Application of cumulative prospect theory》.pdf

Renewable Energy 68 (2014) 752e760 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Renewable Energy journal homepage: /locate/renene Reconsidering the capacity credit of wind power: Application of cumulative prospect theory Edgar Wilton a, *, Erik Delarue b, William D’haeseleer b, Wilfried van Sark a a Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development and Innovation, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3584 CS Utrecht, The Netherlands b University of Leuven (KU Leuven) Energy Institute, TME Branch (Applied Mechanics and Energy Conversion), Celestijnenlaan 300A, Box 2421/B-3001 Leuven, Belgium a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t Article history: The capacity credit is often erroneously considered to be a time-invariant quantity. A multi-year analysis Received 5 September 2013 of the incident wind profile of various potential wind sites uncovered that there exist large differences Accepted 28 February 2014 between annual capacity credit figures. The uniformity of these capacity credit figures is found to Available online 27 March 2014 decrease with diminishing wind time series interval lengths. In recognition of the resulting uncertainty, decision maker risk propensity toward various capacity credit scenarios was investigated by adopting Keywords: cumulative prospect theory. The methodology proposed in this paper is an extension of the effective load Capacity credit