2015年以来国内玉米市场形势分析与展望.pdf

种业导刊，2015年第10期 Journal of Seed Industry Guide 2015年以来国内玉米市场形势分析与展望 焦善伟 （中华粮网，河南　郑州　450046） 摘 要：2015以来，国内玉米市场利空因素占据主导，临储玉米去库存化进度缓慢，再加上需求未见 明显亮点，以及新产玉米陆续上市，玉米价格整体弱势运行。时至9月份，市场已经进入了政策出台 的密集期，国家一方面限制谷物大量进口，另一方面临储玉米“市场化”趋势明显，只是政策迟迟没 有明确，使得市场一时传言四起。从市场多空因素博弈看，在国家粮食安全新战略要求下，保证口粮 绝对安全、谷物基本自给，就要保持国内粮食生产的稳定性，由此玉米临储政策的改革短期内仍难“到 位”，需要给予市场、农民、政府等时间和空间去缓冲。基于此，预计后期国内玉米价格回归市场的 基调不会变化，但短期内临储政策将继续发挥相应的作用。 关键词：玉米；市场价格；临储政策；供需形势；进口；替代；后市预测 中图分类号： F326.11 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1003-4749（2015）10-0014-04 Analysis and Prospect of Domestic Corn Market Situation since 2015 JIAO Shanwei (Zhonghua Grains Network, Zhengzhou 450046, China) Abstract:Domestic corn market dominant negative factors, corn temporary reserve destocking slow progress since 2015, coupled with no significant demand highlights, and a new production of corn onto the market, corn prices overall weak run. Between September, the market has entered the intensive period of policy implementation, a large number of countries on the one hand to limit grain imports, on the other hand corn temporary reserve market was evident, but the policy has yet to clear, making the market the moment rumors everywhere. Pupil factors watch the game from the market, in a new strategy of national food security requirements, to ensure the absolute safety of food rations, grain self-sufficiency, it is necessary to maintain the stability of domestic food production, thereby short-term corn acquisition policy of reform is still hard place, we need to give the market, farmers, government and other time and space to buffer. Based on this, it is expected to return to the market late domestic corn prices will not change the tone, but