Probabilisticuncertaintyinpopulationdynamics.docVIP

Probabilistic Uncertainty in Population Dynamics OSEI, B. M.a*, HOFFMANN, J. P.b, and ELLINGWOOD C. D.b, BENTIL, D. E.c Departments of a Mathematics and Computer Science, Eastern Connecticut State University, 83 Windham Street, Willimantic, CT 06226 and bBotany and Agricultural Biochemistry, and c Mathematics and Statistics, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT 05405 UNITED STATES OF AMERICA Abstract: Analysis and characterization of either environmental or demographic uncertainty in population dynamics models are critical to species conservation and invasion. In particular, a probabilistic uncertainty methodology can be employed to analyze the fluctuations in environmental variables for model parameters of a prototype, generalized growth model in population dynamics. This generalized model encapsulates a myriad of sub-models. Estimates of the extinction time as well as the boundary classifications are determined. Key-Words:- Probabilistic uncertainty, population dynamics, environmental noise, generalized growth models. 1 Introduction The phenomenon of uncertainty in ecological modeling plays a very important role in spatial data and processes. Data on population dynamics often contain fluctuations, which are either due to environmental or demographic noise. In particular, environmental stochasticity can be measured due to fluctuations in the parameters of the model. For example, Croxal et al. [1] report that the Wandering Albatross exhibits fluctuations that cause an increase in their population to above their carrying capacities which in turn causes a corresponding negative decrease in their intrinsic growth rates. Fluctuations in model parameters can greatly impact on the conclusions made out of model predictions. There are two ways to incorporate uncertainty or noise in population dynamic models: stochastic and deterministic approaches. For the stochastic approach, noise is considered to be probabilistic ([2], [3], [4], [5]). In addition, depending on