HowtoReporttheUncertaintyofResults-UniversityofDayton.docVIP

How to Report the Uncertainty of Results Kelly Kissock “Nobody believes an analysis except the analyst. Everybody believes an experiment except the experimenter.” “Uncertainty analysis is more valuable before an experiment than afterward.” Precision, Accuracy, Random and Systematic Error “The accuracy of an instrument indicates the deviation of the reading from a known input... The precision of an instrument indicates its ability to reproduce a certain reading with a given accuracy. As an example of the distinction between precision and accuracy, consider the measurement of a known voltage of 100 volts with a certain meter. Five readings are taken, and the indicated values are 104, 103, 105, 103, and 105 volts. For these values it is seen that the instrument could not be depended on for an accuracy of better than 5 percent (5 volts), while a precision of +1 percent is indicated since the maximum deviation from the mean reading of 104 volts is only 1 volt.” (Holman, pg. 7.) The distinction between precision and accuracy is similar to the distinction between random and systematic error. Systematic error indicates a lack of accuracy, and is generally dealt with by properly calibrating instruments before measurements are taken. Random error is an indication of the precision with which measurements can be made. Traditional uncertainty analysis deals mainly with random error (i.e. the precision of measurements and calculations) because in most experimental situations the “true” value of a measurement is not known, and hence the “accuracy” of a measurement can not be determined. Explicit Uncertainty The clearest way to indicate the level of uncertainty with which a number is known is to explicitly state it next to the number, i.e.: 2 + 0.1 or algebraically: z + dz In experimental situations, the best estimate of z is the mean value of a series of observations, : The ‘average’ deviation between a single measurement and is the standard deviation, s. Most measurements