管理经济学-生意和经济的预测.PPTVIP

Business and Economic ForecastingChapter 5 Time-Series Characteristics: Secular Trend and Cyclical Variation in Women’s Clothing Sales Time-Series Characteristics: Seasonal Pattern and Random Fluctuations Microsoft Corp. Sales Revenue, 1984–2001 White Noise and MA(1) Time Series A MA(1) Process A moving average process of order one [MA(1)] can be characterized as one where xt = et + a1et-1, t = 1, 2, … with et being an iid sequence with mean 0 and variance This is a stationary, weakly dependent sequence as variables 1 period apart are correlated, but 2 periods apart they are not Three