项目管理基础09.pptVIP

? 2008 Prentice Hall IT 项目管理Chapter 9Managing Project Risk Project Risk “…an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or a negative effect on a project objective.” 一种不确定的事件或条件，如果发生，对项目目标可能会有正面的或负面的影响。 一般会被视为威胁，但风险不总是坏的。 例：选择开发那些产品；要做何种投资；要雇佣那些员工；以及要承担哪些项目。 Information Systems Associated Risks Technology and project management related Positive Availability of new project management tools （如知识管理系统、统计工具被用以进行风险规划和风险识别） Negative Rate of change in technologies Upgrades and new releases Assumptions computer-generated output is always correct （对计算机技术的过于依赖，如输入数据的不准确、建模的不准确都可能造成输出结果的偏差） Formation of teams（如何组建团队本身就会引入风险） Risk Project Life Cycle Initiation stage Identification and selection of specific projects Inside or outside of organization’s core competencies 如是否在组织的核心业务领域内识别选择项目 例：星巴克咖啡新店项目 Planning stage Procurement 采购 Unreliability of new technology delivery timeframe 不可靠的技术相关交付物的估计交付日期，尤其是当其位于关键路径上 Development of accurate project schedule 工作结构分解通常是基于先前项目的信息或专家知识，不是完全可靠的 Risk Project Life Cycle (cont.) Execution stage Missed scheduled delivery date 无法满足交付日期 Technology upgrades Control stage Implementation of risk plan 什么是风险计划？ Modification of project schedule Closing stage Acceptance of project as finished 接受认定项目已经完成，意味着要按照合同支付给项目转包商巨额的收尾费用 组织开展风险管理的途径统计 Project Risk Examples 在居民楼顶假设小灵通基站：讲解辐射、好处，楼顶环境改善 通过交流，使得项目范围与意愿支持达成共识 RAD（快速应用开发）： 保证关键步骤不被省略，从整体上降低风险 不同类型的系统开发方法导致不同类型的风险 Different: Cultures Organization structures Human resources General Categories of IS Project Risk Ongoing changes to technology Finding, assigning, and retaining skilled personnel Gaining user acceptance Choosing the correct development methodology Outsourcing / Offshoring Positives: Expanded skill set availability Cheaper labor Reduced requirements for non-core competencies Negatives: Internal resistance Possible solutions to reduce risk: Ensure strong upper management support Select the right personnel Involve managers early in the outsourcing process Educat