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运营管理15.ppt
Technical Note 15Simulation Definition of Simulation Simulation Methodology Proposing a New Experiment Considerations When Using Computer Models Types of Simulations Desirable Features of Simulation Software Advantages Disadvantages of Simulation SimulationDefined A computer-based model used to run experiments on a real system. Typically done on a computer. Determines reactions to different operating rules or change in structure. Can be used in conjunction with traditional statistical and management science techniques. Major Phases in a Simulation Study Simulation Methodology:Problem Definition Specifying the objectives Identifying the relevant controllable and uncontrollable variables of the system to be studied Constructing a Simulation Model Specification of Variables and Parameters Specification of Decision Rules Specification of Probability Distributions Specification of Time-Incrementing Procedure Data Collection and Random Number Interval Example Evaluating Results Conclusions depend on the degree to which the model reflects the real system design of the simulation (in a statistical sense) The only true test of a simulation is how well the real system performs after the results of the study have been implemented. Proposing a New Experiment Might want to change many of the factors: parameters variables decision rules starting conditions run length If the initial rules led to poor results or if these runs yielded new insights into the problem, then a new decision rule may be worth trying. Considerations When Using Computer Models Computer language selection Flowcharting Coding Data generation Output reports Validation Types of Simulation Models Continuous Based on mathematical equations. Used for simulating continuous values for all points in time. Example: The amount of time a person spends in a queue. Discrete Used for simulating specific values or specific points. Example: Number of people in a queue. Desirable Features of Simulation Software Be capa
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