HIVAIDS传播对社会和经济发展的影响(论文).doc

毕 业 论 文 题 目HIV/AIDS传播对社会 和经济发展的影响 专 业 信息与计算科学 班 级 计算061班 学 号 3060811008 学 生 任民 指导教师 金上海 2010 HIV/AIDS传播对社会和经济发展的影响 专 业：信息与计算科学 学 生：任民 指导教师：金上海 摘 要 SEI模型，分析了在不同控制力度下的艾滋病流行情况。 最后，对艾滋病的社会经济问题进行了三个层次的研究：艾滋病对个人和家庭的影响；艾滋病对社区和社会经济部门的影响；艾滋病对整个社会和宏观经济的影响。通过计算每个艾滋病病人每年的医药费用等直接损失和各种间接损失，得出每年总的因艾滋病治疗而减少的国民生产总值，不仅对GDP的总量产生影响更使GDP的增长速度减缓。 关键词： Influence of HIV Transmission on the Development of Economy and Society Speciality:Information and computing science Student: Min Ren Advisor: ShangHai Jin ABSTRACT The transmission of HIV and AIDS is a significant problem to the countries in the world. It is estimated that China will have 10 million people contact with HIV/AIDS by 2015. Treating such a large number of AIDS patients will become increasingly difficult. We must pay more attention to HIV/AIDS control. At first in this paper, a brief introduction to the mechanism and the characteristics of HIV, the procedure of HIV /AIDS transmission is given. Then, according to characteristics of the HIV/AIDS transmission, the SEI mathematical model is formulated based on the assumption to illustrate the transmission of HIV/AIDS. The analysis is done in different control level. At last, the influence of HIV/AIDS to social-economy is studied. The influence of HIV/AIDS to individuals and family; to community and the social department; to the macroeconomic development is investigated. By computing the direct and indirect expense of HIV/AIDS treatment, it is shown that the HIV transmission in China will reduce the GDP greatly. KEY WORDS: HIV/AIDS, mathematical model, analysis of economy 目 录 摘 要 i ABSTRACT ii 1 绪 论 1 1.1艾滋病的基本知识 1 1.2艾滋病的发病机理 2 1.3艾滋病的传播途径与传播特点 3 1.3.1艾滋病的传播途径 3 1.3.2艾滋病的传播特点 4 1.4艾滋病流行的现状和趋势 5 1.5艾滋病模型的历史背景 7 2艾滋病传播数学模型的建立与分析 8 2.1建模思想 8 2.2假设条件 8 2.3参数确定 9 2.4模型的建立 9 2.5建立微分方程 10 2.6初值的计算 10 2.7编程求解 11 3 艾滋病对社会和经济发展的影响 12 3.1艾滋病流行的预测[4] 12 3.2艾滋病对个人和家庭的影响 14 3.2.1艾滋病对家庭的经济影响 15 3.2.2艾滋病