基于EMD、计量经济学模型和混沌模型的短期负荷预测.pdfVIP

第 35 卷 第 9 期 电 网 技 术 Vol. 35 No. 9 2011 年 9 月 Power System Technology Sep. 2011 文章编号：1000-3673 （2011 ）09-0181-07 中图分类号：TM 715 文献标志码：A 学科代码：470·4054 基于经验模态分解和计量经济学模型及 混沌模型的短期负荷预测 张金良，谭忠富 （华北电力大学经济与管理学院，北京市 昌平区 102206 ） Short-Term Load Forecasting Based on Empirical Mode Decomposition, Econometric Model and Chaotic Model ZHANG Jinliang, TAN Zhongfu (School of Economics Management, North China Electric Power University, Changping District, Beijing 102206, China) ABSTRACT: To improve the accuracy of short-term load 方法与其他预测方法进行了比较，算例表明，该方法具有较 forecasting, a hybrid prediction method based on empirical 高的预测精度。 mode decomposition (EMD), econometric model and neural 关键词：负荷预测；经验模态分解；计量经济学模型；神经 network chaotic model was proposed. Firstly, the load series 网络混沌模型 was decomposed into several intrinsic mode function and remainder by EMD; then different models were built for 0 引言 forecasting according to the features of decomposed 短期负荷预测是电力系统安全调度、经济运行 components; finally, the summation of all results forecasted by individual components was regarded as final forecasting result. 和合理规划的重要依据。电力负荷的准确预测对电 Taking Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) electricity 力生产、电网运行和经济发展都有着深远的影响。 market for example, the proposed method was verified by 为此，国内外学者对电力系统短期负荷预测的理论 forecasting results of ordinar