季度周期模型在我国用电量预测中的应用研究.pdfVIP

第 36 卷 第 7 期 电 网 技 术 Vol. 36 No. 7 2012 年 7 月 Power System Technology Jul. 2012 文章编号：1000-3673 （2012 ）07-0106-05 中图分类号：TM 714 文献标志码：A 学科代码：470·4054 季度周期模型在我国用电量预测中的应用研究 范德成，王韶华，张伟 （哈尔滨工程大学经济管理学院，黑龙江省 哈尔滨市 150001 ） Study on Application of Seasonal Cycle Model in China’s Power Load Forecasting FAN Decheng, WANG Shaohua, ZHANG Wei (School of Economics and Management, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin 150001, Heilongjiang Province, China) ABSTRACT: In allusion to seasonal electric power shortage 电力对经济发展的根基性作用以及电力供求与经 existing in China and according to the feature of cyclical 济增长之间的相互作用。由于电能的不可储存性， variation of seasonal power consumption, a seasonal cycle 电力产品供大于求，则出现浪费；电力需求大于供 model of power consumption is constructed by the 给，则会严重阻碍我国经济的发展，甚至影响人民 quarter-cycle forecasting method to predict seasonal power 的正常生活，于是电力需求预测成为大家关注的热 consumption in the future. According to the feature of seasonal variation, the situation of power supply and consumption and 点。1998 年，马希赫利用协整方法综合检验模型试 data availability, the seasonal power consumptions in China 图验证电能消费、实际收入、价格水平三者之间存 from spring, 2002 to winter, 2007 are chosen as samples and on 在着某些关系，通过收集泰国、斯里兰卡的历史数 this basis a seasonal cycle model for China’s power 据，发现存在电能消费对收入和价格水平的单项因 consumption is built. Calculation results show that the 果关系；2003 年，阿尔伯特等人将残差修正模型、 proposed model can offer better forecasting results. By means 人工神经网络信号处理技术和灰色理论加以综合， of utilizing the annual data of 2008, the adaptive correction