湖北省气候变化与主要农业气象灾害的响应.pdfVIP

中国农业科学 2007,40(8):1646-1653 Scientia Agricultura Sinica 湖北省气候变化与主要农业气象灾害的响应 1 1 2 冯 明 ，刘可群 ，毛 飞 1 2 （武汉区域气候中心，武汉 430074 ； 国家气象科学研究院，北京 100081） 摘要：【目的】研究气候和农业气象灾害变化。【方法】根据农业气象学原理和农业气象灾害指标，整合、统 计相应的气象要素。采用气候倾向率方法对资料进行处理。【结果】与以前的分析结论比较，经过延长 10 a 的资 料分析，温度变化结论有所改变。【结论】气温变化呈增加趋势，降水变化呈增多趋势，日照变化呈减少趋势。26 种农业气象灾害中，有17种呈减少趋势，有9种呈增加趋势。但并不意味着气候变化对农业有利。所得结论增强 了气象部门为“三农”服务的针对性，也为政府和农业部门充分利用气候资源、趋利避害提供了决策依据。 关键词：湖北省；气候变化；农业气象灾害 Climate Change and Main Response to Agrometeorological Disasters in Hubei Province 1 1 2 FENG Ming , LIU Ke-qun , MAO Fei 1 2 ( Wuhan Regional Climate Center, Wuhan 430074; Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081) Abstract: 【Objective 】The objective of the research was to study climate and the main agrometeorological disaster changes. 【Method 】According to the principle of agrometeorology and index of agrometeorological disasters, the meteorological elements were combined and calculated. The change trend of agrometeorological disasters was analyzed by using climatic inclination rate. 【Result 】Conopared with other conclusions previously made and analysis of the data of more than 10 years, the conclusion on temperature change has been altered. 【Conclusion 】Temperature changes presented an increasing trend. Precipitation changes showed an increasing trend. Sunlight changes showed a decreasing trend. Among the 26 agrometerological disasters, there were 17 disasters showed a decreasing trend and 9 disasters showed