气候变化对中国农业影响评估和适应性研究的回顾与展望.pdfVIP

中国农业科学 2007,40(增刊1):41-48 Scientia Agricultura Sinica 气候变化对中国农业影响评估和适应性研究的回顾与展望 许吟隆，居 辉，熊 伟，林而达 （中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所，北京100081） 摘要：本文首先介绍了气候变化对农业影响与适应性研究的背景，阐述了国内外的研究进展，回顾了国家自 “八五”科技攻关计划研究以来在构建中国区域气候情景、农业对气候变化的敏感性与脆弱性、气候变化对粮食 产量与供给安全的影响等方面的研究成果和正在进行的相关研究课题，最后对有待解决的问题进行了研究展望。 关键词：气候变化；中国农业；影响评估；适应性 Review and Prospect of Research of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Adaptation in China XU Yin-long, JU Hui, XIONG Wei, LIN Er-da (Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 10008 1) Abstract: In this paper, the research background of the climate change impacts on Chinese agriculture and adaptation as well as the relevant international and domestic progresses were firstly introduced, and then the results on the construction of climate change scenarios in China, sensitivity and vulnerability to climate change in agriculture, and the impacts of climate change on crop yield and food supply security since China’s the 8th 5-Year-Plan key technology RD program were reviewed. Finally, the undergoing research projects were briefed, the unsolved problems and the research directions were discussed and prospected. Key words: Climate change; Chinese agriculture; Impacts assessment; Adaptation 危险的人为干扰的水平上。这一水平应当在足以使生 1 研究的背景与意义 态系统能够自然地适应气候变化、确保粮食生产免受 自工业革命以来，由于人类活动的加剧，石油、 威胁并使经济发展能够可持续地进行的时间范围内实 煤等化石燃料大规模地使用，以及对土地资源过度的 现”。 [1] 开发利用，严重地破坏了地球的自然生态系统，导致 IPCC 2001 年发布的第三次评估报告 指出：全球 大气中二氧化碳、甲烷等温室气体浓度急剧上升，造 平均地面气温在20 世纪升高了（0.6 ±0.2 ）℃，近50