我国城市化与电力消费水平的动态关系分析.pdfVIP

第33 卷 第14 期 电 网 技 术 Vol. 33 No. 14 2009 年7 月 Power System Technology Jul. 2009 文章编号：1000-3673 （2009 ）14-0072-06 中图分类号：F063.2 文献标志码：A 学科代码：790·625 我国城市化与电力消费水平的动态关系分析 谢品杰，谭忠富，侯建朝，王绵斌 （华北电力大学电力经济研究所，北京市 昌平区 102206 ） Analysis on Dynamic Relationship Between Urbanization and Electricity Consumption Level in China XIE Pin-jie ，TAN Zhong-fu ，HOU Jian-chao ，WANG Mian-bin （Institute of Electric Power Economics，North China Electric Power University ，Changping District，Beijing 102206 ，China ） ABSTRACT: With the help of econometric methods such as 并不一致，在长期内二者互为Granger 原因，但均不构成对 co-integration theory ，error correction model, Granger causality 方的短期Granger 原因。且二者相互影响的效应存在明显的 test, impulse response and variance decomposition, the short- 差异，电力消费对城市化有较大的作用强度，而城市化对电 and long-term dynamic relation of interaction between 力消费的冲击作用不大。上述结论表明，电力是城市化的基 electricity consumption level and urbanization in China since 础，推进城市化要坚持“电力发展既要有一定的超前性，又 the reform and opening is analyzed. Analysis results show that 要保持均衡发展”的原则。 there is a long-term and steady equilibrium relationship 关键词：城市化；电力消费；Granger 因果检验；动态关系； between electricity consumption level and urbanization in 计量方法；误差修正模型 China, however the short-term effect and long-term effect of 0 引言 the interaction are not inconsistent; in the long-term the electricity consumption level and urbanization mutually act as 电力是现代社会发展不可或缺的生产、生活资 Granger causality but do not constitute short-term Granger 料，在国民经济和社会进步中起着基础性作用，加 causality. The mutual interaction effect are obviously different 之电力工业自身具有投资高度密集、建设周期长且 too, el