a strongsystemstrong dynamics strongmodelstrong of the pacific coast rockfish fishery.pdf

A System Dynamics Model of the Pacific Coast Rockfish Fishery 1 1 1 2 Wayne Wakeland , Olgay Cangur , Guillermo Rueda , Astrid Scholz 1Portland State University, Systems Science Ph.D. Program P.O. Box 751, Portland, OR 97207 Tel: 503-725-4975/Fax: 503-725-8489 Email: wakeland@ 2 Ecotrust Abstract-- This paper presents a model of the dynamic behavior of the yellowtail rockfish of the Pacific Coast of the United States. The purpose of the model is to generate endogenously the historical data for fish population, fishing vessels, regulatory parameters, and fish harvest. The model was subjected to a variety of tests to determine its sensitivity to changes in key parameters and initial values, including extreme conditions. Model results indicate that acceptable biological catch and fleet capacity must be adjusted quickly in response to changing conditions, in order to improve fishery sustainability. Additional analysis reinforces the policy of setting the maximum sustainable yield at 40%. Key words: fishery, yellowtail, rockfish, groundfish, sustainability, fleet reduction. THE PROBLEM Populations of rockfish and other Pacific Coast groundfish have dropped dramatically in recent decades. Although the direct economic contribution at the state level (California, Oregon, and Washington) is quite small (1%-3%), the fishing industry is still very important to the coastal communities where it continues to be the mainstay of their local economy. Northwest communities that are very dependent on natural resource-based industry exhibit low