a theory of rational inflationary inertia.pdf

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a theory of rational inflationary inertia

1 A THEORY OF RATIONAL INFLATIONARY INERTIA Guillermo Calvo, University of Maryland and NBER Oya Celasun, International Monetary Fund Michael Kumhof, Stanford University “... if there is such a thing as an economy with a rock-solid inflation rate of 40 per cent, plus or minus 2 per cent, per year, institutions would surely adapt, so that prices would be announced in catalogs and wage contracts with smooth growth paths paralleling the smooth aggregate price path. Nominal rigidity would set in about this price path in much the same form as we see around the zero inflation rate in low-inflation economies.” (Sims, 1988, p. 77) 1 Introduction Monetary theory today is dominated by fully microfounded dynamic general equilibrium models incorporating, in one form or another, the assumption of sticky prices. A comprehensive survey of this literature is contained in Clarida, Gali and Gertler (1999) for closed economies, and Lane (2001) for open economies. The renewed popularity of sticky price monetary economics was motivated by empirical findings which demonstrated, at least for the US case, that monetary policy has significant real effects, contrary to the premise of the real business cycle literature. Examples of that empirical literature include Christiano, Eichenbaum and Evans (1996, 1998) and Leeper, Sims and Zha (1996). As surveyed in Taylor (1998), the assumption of sticky prices does a good job in explaining most, but not all, features of those data. That paper also documents the micro- and macroeconomic evidence supporting the assumption of sticky prices itself. The 1990s resurgence of this model class would have been hard to predict from a 1970s vantage point. At that time, in the wake of

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