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MARINE ECOLOGY PROGRESS SERIES Published December 1 Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. An ecosystem box model for estimating the carrying capacity of a macrotidal shellfish system IFREMER, Unite de Recherche Ecosystemes Aquacoles, BP 133,F-17390 La Tremblade, France IFREMER,Direction de LEnvironnement et de llAmenagement Littoral, Laboratoire de Chimie et Modelisation des Cycles Naturels, BP 70, F-29280 Plouzane, France ABSTRACT: An ecosystem model is presented for estimating the shellfish carrying capacity of Marennes-Oleron Bay (France).It incorporates physical and biological processes: horizontal transport of suspended matter, feeding and growth of the cultivated oyster Crassostrea gigas and primary pro- duction. The precision and consistency of the model are tested by comparing simulations to observed data. The model smoothes both spatial and temporal variability of suspended-matter concentrations but reproduces mean levels and seasonal cycles with some accuracy. Carrying capacity of the shellfish system is assessed by computing the sensitivity of oyster growth to oyster abundance. Model results clearly inbcate a density dependence of oyster growth. When stock is adjusted from 20% to 200% of the present value, maximal dry weight of oysters shows a mean decrease of approximately 25%. The spatial heterogeneity of the growth response is a consequence of the low level of primary production within the shellfish area. The hydrodynan~icregime of the bay str