climate and land use change impacts on global terrestrial.pdfVIP

Biogeosciences, 12, 1317– 1338, 2015 /12/1317/2015/ doi:10.5194/bg-12-1317-2015 © Author(s) 2015. CC Attribution 3.0 License. Climate and land use change impacts on global terrestrial ecosystems and river flows in the HadGEM2-ES Earth system model using the representative concentration pathways 1,2 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 R. A. Betts , N. Golding , P. Gonzalez , J. Gornall , R. Kahana , G. Kay , L. Mitchell , and A. Wiltshire 1Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK 2 College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Hatherley Laboratories, Prince of Wales Road, Exeter, EX4 4PS, UK 3Natural Resource Stewardship and Science, US National Park Service, Washington, DC 20005-5905, USA Correspondence to: R. A. Betts (richard.betts@metoffi.uk) Received: 31 January 2013 – Published in Biogeosciences Discuss.: 2 April 2013 Revised: 9 August 2013 – Accepted: 20 August 2013 – Published: 3 March 2015 Abstract. A new generation of an Earth system model now areas, particularly tropical and sub-tropical latitudes. River includes a number of land-surface processes directly rele- outflows are simulated to increase with higher levels of CO2 vant to analyzing potential impacts of climate change. This and global warming in all projections, with outflow increas- model, HadGEM2-ES, allows us to assess the impacts of ing with mean temperature at the end of the 21st century at climate change, multiple interactions, and feedbacks as the the global scale and in North America, Asia, and Africa. In model is run. This paper discusses the results of century- South America, Europe, and Australia, the relationship with scale HadGEM2-ES simulations from an impacts perspec- climate warming and CO2 rise is less clear, proba