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contingent valuation, hypothetical bias and experimental.pdf

contingent valuation, hypothetical bias and experimental.pdf

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contingent valuation, hypothetical bias and experimental

June 2004 Contingent Valuation, Hypothetical Bias and Experimental Economics * JAMES J. MURPHY Assistant Professor Department of Resource Economics Center for Public Policy and Administration University of Massachusetts-Amherst THOMAS H. STEVENS Professor Department of Resource Economics University of Massachusetts-Amherst Prepared for the NAREA-CAES Conference June 20-23, 2004 Halifax, Nova Scotia Abstract Although the contingent valuation method has been widely used to value a diverse array of non- market environmental and natural resource commodities, recent empirical evidence suggests that it may not accurately estimate real economic values. The hypothetical nature of environmental valuation surveys typically results in responses that are significantly greater than actual payments. Economists have had mixed success in developing techniques designed to control for this “hypothetical bias.” This paper highlights the role of experimental economics in addressing hypothetical bias, and identifies a gap in the existing literature by focusing on the underlying causes of this bias. Most of the calibration techniques used today lack a theoretical justification and therefore these procedures need to be used with caution. We argue that future experimental research should investigate the reasons hypothetical bias persists. A bet

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