discrimination of dynamical strongsystem modelsstrong for biological and.pdf

Discrimination of dynamical system models for biological and chemical ∗ processes ¨ 1 Sonke Lorenz, Elmar Diederichs , 1,2 ¨ 1 Regina Telgmann , Christof Schutte 1 Institut f¨ur Mathematik II, Freie Universit¨at Berlin Arnimallee 2-6, 14195 Berlin, Germany 2 CiT - Computing in Technology GmbH Oldenburger Str. 200, 26180 Rastede, Germany May 31, 2006 Abstract In technical chemistry, systems biology and biotechnology, the construc- tion of predictive models has become an essential step in process design and product optimization. Accurate modelling of the reactions requires detailed knowledge about the processes involved. However, when con- cerned with the development of new products and production techniques for example, this knowledge often is not available due to the lack of exper- imental data. Thus, when one has to work with a selection of proposed models and the main tasks of early development is to discriminate these models. In this article, a new statistical approach to model discrimination is described that ranks models wrt. the probability with which they re- produce the data. The article introduces the new approach, discusses its statistical background, presents numerical techniques for its implementa- tion and illustrates the application to examples from biokinetics. keywords: Model discrimination, Gauss-Newt