Forecasting with strongXstrong-12-ARIMA International tourist arrivals to.pdfVIP

Applied Studies in Agribusiness and Commerce – APSTRACT Agroinform Publishing House, Budapest SCIENTIFIC PAPERS Forecasting with X-12-ARIMA: International tourist arrivals to India and Thailand Peter Balogh – Sandor Kovacs – Chukiat Chaiboonsri – Prasert Chaitip Ph.D. Assistant professor ,PhD. University of Debrecen, Hungary Phd. Student , University of Debrecen, Hungary Candidate in the Indian Government Ph.D. (Economics) program at Bangalore University Assoc, Prof. DR. in Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai ,Thailand Abstract: Forecasting is an essential analytical tool in tourism policy and planning. This paper focuses on forecasting methods based on X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment and this method was developed by the Census Bureau in the United States. It has been continually improved since the 1960s, and it is used by many statistics agencies and central banks. The secondary data were used to produce forecasts of international tourist arrivals to India for 2007-2010 and also these data were used to produce forecasts of international tourist arrivals to Thailand for 2006-2010. From these period the results confirm that the best forecasting method based on the X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment is X-12-ARIMA(0,1,2)(0,1,1), X-12-ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1) and X-12-ARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,1) for India and the best forecasting method based on this method is X-12-ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1) and X-12-ARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,1) for Thailand. Furthermore this method predict that international tourism arrivals to India for 2007–2010 will growth at a positive rate as same as in this during period the number of international tourists arrival to India