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Working Document 14/01
Modeling water scarcity and droughts to
analyze water policies in the Jucar Basin
(Spain)
Mohamed Taher Kahil, Ariel Dinar and Jose Albiac
Department of Agricultural Economics
Agrifood Research and Technology Center (CITA-
Government of Aragon)
This Working Document draws from the first chapter of the Ph.D. dissertation by
Mohamed Taher Kahil “Water management policies under scarcity and climate change:
Analysis of economic instruments, institutions and collective action”, Department of
Economic Analysis of the University of Zaragoza, Spain. The research has been supported
by projects BIL13MA072 from MAPFRE and project INIA RTA2010-00109-C04 from
the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness. The ideas and opinions in this
document are responsibility of the authors and not those of the institutions supporting the
research.
To obtain reprints of the Working Document contact:
Jose Albiac
Unidad Economia Agraria
CITA-DGA
Avenida de Montañana 930
50.059 Zaragoza
Spain
email: maella@unizar.es
Phone: +34 976716351
Fax: +34 976716335
Summary
Growing water extractions combined with emerging demands for environment
protection increase competition for scarce water resources worldwide, especially in arid
and semiarid regions. In those regions, climate change is projected to exacerbate water
scarcity and increase the recurrence and intensity of droughts. These circumstances call
for methodologies that can support the design of sustainable water management. This
paper presents a hydro-economic model that links a reduced form hydrological
component, with economic and environmental components. The model is applied to an
arid and s
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