Before the Peak Impacts of Oil Shortages on the Developing.docVIP

Before the Peak: Impacts of Oil Shortages on the Developing World* by Ben W. Ebenhack and Daniel M. Martínez Abstract We explore the generally ignored reality that the petroleum shortage will occur before peak oil, when the rate of growth falls below the rate of growth of demand. This underscores that the shortage will be coming relatively soon, even if ultimate reserves are found to be more than the most current thinking, with concomitant price increases. Indeed, an energy shortage already exists for the half of humanity lacking access to modern energy. Supply constraints for affluent, industrialized consumers will adversely affect energy imports for developing countries and, at the same time, increase international pressure on the developing world’s resources for the export market. Many resources that have been deemed sub-commercial in these regions will be re-evaluated in light of higher prices. This will offer some opportunity to earn foreign trade, but at the cost of resources that could be tapped for local development. The Development Community has an opportunity to help those regions achieve energy security, through the development of these resources locally, by enhancing professional capacity and offering technical expertise. Biographical Note Ben W. Ebenhack is founder and Chairman of the Board of AHEAD Energy Corporation in Rochester, NY. He is also Senior Lecturer in the Chemical Engineering Department at the University of Rochester (URChE). Daniel M. Martínez is an AHEAD Researcher and an URChE Postdoctoral Fellow. AHEAD works with energy-poor communities to assemble resources needed to develop local energy services that improve lives and livelihoods in ways that safeguard the natural environment. Email: benw@; daniel.m.martinez@. Before the Peak: Impacts of Oil Shortages on the Developing World by Ben W. Ebenhack and Daniel M. Martínez Introduction The notion of an impending oil shortage is quite misunderstood and misrepresented, especially as it