基于T-S模型的电力变压器顶层油温预测研究.pdfVIP

第 27 卷 第 30 期 中 国 电 机 工 程 学 报 Vol.27 No.30 Oct. 2007 2007 年 10 月 Proceedings of the CSEE ©2007 Chin.Soc.for Elec.Eng. 0258-8013 (2007) 30-0015-05 TM41 A 470 40 文章编号： 中图分类号： 文献标识码： 学科分类号： ⋅ 基于T-S 模型的电力变压器顶层油温预测研究 熊 浩，陈伟根，杜 林，孙才新，廖瑞金 (重庆大学电气工程学院高电压与电工新技术教育部重点实验室，重庆市 沙坪坝区 400030) Study on Prediction of Top-oil Temperature for Power Transformer Based on T-S Model XIONG Hao, CHEN Wei-gen, DU Lin, SUN Cai-xin, LIAO Rui-jin (The Key Laboratory of High Voltage and Electrical New Technology of Ministry of Education, Chongqing University, Shapingba District, Chongqing 400030, China) ABSTRACT: The hottest spot winding temperature (HST) is 0 引言 an important factor to operation safety and insulation life 电力变压器是电力系统的关键设备，在运行中 assessment of power transformer. A prediction model of top-oil 遭受热、电和机械等多种应力的共同作用。从某 temperature based on Takagi-Sugeno(T-S) fuzzy model has been established to estimate HST. The antecedent parameters of 种程度而言，电力变压器的负载能力和可用寿命 Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy model are off-line identified by fuzzy 取决于它的热特性，即能否及时地将变压器内部 C-means algorithm, its consequent part is determined by 产生的热量传递到周围环境中。绕组热点温度是 weighted least squares method. And the consequent parameters 衡量变压器热特性的重要指标，热点温度超过允 are also adjusted on-line using recursive least squares method 许值易导致气泡的产生，加速变压器的热老化并 with oblivion factor. Simulation experiment has conducted by 造成绕组绝缘性能的劣化。绕组热点温度的测量 applying this model in on-site data, the result of which 方法有：光纤传感器直接测量法、热模拟测量法 indica