概率最优潮流的点估计算法.pdfVIP

第 28 卷 第 16 期 中 国 电 机 工 程 学 报 Vol.28 No.16 Jun. 5, 2008 28 2008 年 6 月 5 日 Proceedings of the CSEE ©2008 Chin.Soc.for Elec.Eng. 0258-8013 (2008)16-0028-06 TM 71 A 470 40 文章编号： 中图分类号： 文献标识码： 学科分类号： ⋅ 概率最优潮流的点估计算法 潘 炜，刘文颖，杨以涵 ( 电力系统保护与动态安全监控教育部重点实验室(华北电力大学) ，北京市 昌平区 102206) Point Estimate Method for Probabilistically Optimal Power Flow Computation PAN Wei, LIU Wen-ying, YANG Yi-han (Key Laboratory of Power System Protection and Dynamic Security Monitoring and Control (North China Electric Power University), Ministry of Education, Changping District, Beijing 102206, China) ABSTRACT: A three-point estimate method to solve the 潮流模拟市场竞价过程，可获得交易量和节点电价 probabilistically optimal power flow for electricity market with 等重要指标。传统最优潮流研究大都基于确定性模 uncertain factors was proposed in this paper. The high-order 型，即市场报价、负荷分布和元件参数等条件固定 moments of stochastic variables to construct the estimate points 不变[1-4] 。从宏观上看，一定时期内发电商报价和用 and the certain relations between stochastic variables and 户消费电能具有一定的确定性，但从微观角度来 objective function were utilized to determine the estimate value 看，每个时段内发电商报价和用户消费的电能又会 of objective function. By this method the probabilistic 在各种因素影响下产生变化，这将引起交易量和节 problems can be handled with the same routines as those corresponding to deterministic problems while alleviating the 点电价的不断波动。因此采用确定性模型进行最优 computational burden. Numerical results of IEEE 30-bus and 潮流计算得到的结果，不能全面反映不确定因素对 118-bus systems show that comparing with Monte Carlo