参数估计课件祥解.pptVIP

* * An estimator is a random variable used to estimate a population parameter (characteristic). Unbiasedness An estimator is unbiased if the mean of its sampling distribution is equal to the population parameter. Efficiency The efficiency of an unbiased estimator is measured by the variance of its sampling distribution. If two estimators, with the same sample size, are both unbiased, then the one with the smaller variance has greater relative efficiency. Consistency An estimator is a consistent estimator of a population parameter if the larger the sample size, the more likely it is that the estimate will come close to the parameter. * An estimator is a random variable used to estimate a population parameter (characteristic). Unbiasedness An estimator is unbiased if the mean of its sampling distribution is equal to the population parameter. Efficiency The efficiency of an unbiased estimator is measured by the variance of its sampling distribution. If two estimators, with the same sample size, are both unbiased, then the one with the smaller variance has greater relative efficiency. Consistency An estimator is a consistent estimator of a population parameter if the larger the sample size, the more likely it is that the estimate will come close to the parameter. * * * * * * ①计算样本指标 样本平均成绩 样本标准差 抽样平均误差 * ②根据给定的F（z），查表求z F（z）=95.45% 查表 z=2 ③求出抽样极限误差Δ和估计区间的上、下限 估计区间下限 ：76.6－2.2754=74.32 估计区间上限 ：76.6＋2.2754=78.89 * 以95.45%的概率保证程度估计该校学生考试平均成绩的区间范围是：74.32≤ ≤78.89 (2)已知 ，由 * 例5.4 某地区的电视台委托调查公司估计地区内居民平均每日的看电视时间。调查公司随机抽取了100名居民进行调查，样本数据显示平均每人每天看电视时间是4个小时。如果已知总体的标准差σ=1.5小时。 试求：(1)该地区内居民每天看电视的平均时间的置信区间(置信度是95%)；(2)如果要求估计的误差不超过27分钟，这时置信度是多少？ * 解：(1)已知 =4小时，n=100，σ=1.5小时，F(z)=95%。这时查标准正态分布表，可得z=1.96，由抽样平均误差 因此，以95%置信度，估计该地区内居民每天看电视的平均时间在3.706到4.294个小时之间。 * （2）要求极限误差等于27分钟，即Δ=0.45小时。这时概率度 ： 查概率表知这时的概率是99.73% * 三、总体成数的区间估计 表 达 式 其中， 为抽样极限误差 * 步 骤 ⒈ 计算样本成数： ；