世界经济向何处去摘要.doc

世界经济向何处去 They probably wont move in step over the next few months. Emerging economies may be on the upswing, while developed nations may not be so lucky. Whats an investor to do? 可能在未来几个月大家都不会有太大变化，不过，之后，新兴经济体就可能重拾升势，而发达国家大概就不会那么幸运了。我们该把钱放哪呢？ 吉姆-祖巴克 It may not look like it, but the worlds stock markets are about to start moving in different directions. 也有可能不会像上面说的，但世界股票市场看起来确实正准备分道扬镳。 Thats certainly not at all clear now. Most days recently, all the worlds stock markets have moved in the same direction: down. On June 29, for example, the U.S. Standard Poors 500 Index ($INX) dropped 3.1%, Germanys DAX Index fell 3.3%, and Chinas Shanghai Composite Index plunged 4.3%. 当然，现在的状况还不够明朗，最近这些日子，全世界的股票市场基本还步调一致：跌。比如6月29日，美国标普指数下跌3.1%，德国DAX指数下跌3%，中国沪指更是跳水4.3%。 But I think sometime in the not-too-distant future -- the next three to six months would be my best guess -- the stock markets of the developed and developing worlds will start to diverge. Six months from now -- or less -- stocks in China, Brazil, India and many other developing markets will be in clear uptrends, and stocks in the developed economies of Europe and Japan will still be stuck in decline. The United States will be left in the middle, straddling the divide between the two groups. 不过，我认为在不远的将来——估计也就3--6个月——发达国家和发展中国家的股票市场就会分道扬镳。六个月后——或更早——中国，巴西，印度以及其他发展中国家的股票市场就会清晰地呈现出上升趋势，而欧洲，日本等国家的市场则会继续下跌。美国市场估计会处于中间地带，在上升和下降之间纠结。 Why? 为什么？ Because the underlying economies are headed in radically different directions within that time period. And where the economic fundamentals go, stocks eventually follow. 因为在这段期间，他们的经济车轮将会彻底背道而驰，而股市向来是经济的晴雨表。 If Im right, this divergence should be the cornerstone of your investment strategy over the next year or longer. And, if Im right, how you allocate your portfolio between these two diverging blocks of economies and markets will determine how well your investments perform during that period. 如果被我猜中，那你需要在明年甚至更长的时间里，把全球经济的分化作为指导投资的基本战略；如果被我猜中，你如何在分化的两个阵营分配投资比例，将会决定这段时间你的投资表现。 Let me l