ASAD模型.pptVIP

* UNITS: Billions of chained 2000 dollars ORIGINAL SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis WEBSITE WHERE I FOUND THIS DATA: /fred2/ SERIES: GDPC1 * UNITS: Billions of chained 2000 dollars ORIGINAL SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis WEBSITE WHERE I FOUND THIS DATA: /fred2/ SERIES NAME: GPDIC1 * UNITS: Percent of labor force (seasonally adjusted) ORIGINAL SOURCE: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics WEBSITE WHERE I FOUND THIS DATA: /fred2/ series “UNRATE” Note: The source data was monthly. To be consistent with Figure 1c of the text, I graphed quarterly data, where each quarterly value is a simple average of the three monthly values. * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Firms certainly have a strong incentive to not mistake a general price increase for a relative price increase. And information about the price level is costless and available with only a short lag (especially the CPI, which is published monthly and very widely reported the moment it comes out). * all three imply that output deviates from its long-run level (the “natural rate of output”) when the price level (P) deviates from the level people had expected (PE). * When P = PE, Y = YN When P PE, Y YN When P PE, Y YN * * * * Two possible causes of the Great Depression: the fall in the money supply, and the stock market crash. Either would shift the AD curve left, causing P and Y to fall and causing unemployment to rise. Data source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce /bea/dn/home/gdp.htm * This boom was clearly caused by a surge in govt spending. Our model predicts an increase in G would shift AD to the right, increasing P and Y, and reducing unemployment. These predictions are consistent with the data. Source for GDP data: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce /bea/dn/home/gdp.htm Source for data on government outlays: Economic Report of the President, 20