中国高技术产业局变动趋势及效益研究.pdfVIP

中国高技术产业布局变动趋势及效益研究 摘 要 克鲁格曼区位基尼系数理论是一种用于测度地区产业布局不平衡程 度的模型，但是当采用组距不等数据进行计算时，却会出现洛仑兹曲线 围绕45 度线上下跳动的情况，此时会使区位基尼系数出现负值。本文构 建了组距不等条件下区位基尼系数的算法模型，并对中国高技术产业 1995-2005 年的集聚水平进行实证分析，得出结论，近十一年来中国高 技术产业的集聚水平显著提高，但是高技术产业包含的五个产业部门无 论从聚集水平还是变动趋势都存在较大差异。为了反映中国高技术产业 集聚的效益，本文采用计量经济学的协整理论，以检验产业集聚水平与 产业经济效益的相关性，并着重分析了中国高技术产业三个主要集聚地， 即珠三角、长三角和京津冀地区的产业集聚效益及变动。最终得出结论： 1）中国高技术产业集聚水平与全员劳动生产率和固定资产贡献率存在正 相关关系；2）长三角、珠三角地区存在明显的产业集聚效益，而京津冀 地区产业集聚效益不明显。 关键字：区位基尼系数，高技术产业，产业集聚 I 第 I 页 THE STUDY OF ALTERATION TREND AND EFFECT OF INDUSTRIAL LOCALIZATION IN HIGH-TECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY OF CHINA ABSTRACT The Theory of Regional Gini Index proposed by Krugman is used to measure the agglomeration level of industrial localization, but when applied to data of groups which has great disparity, the Lorenz curve based on the data jumps around the line of 45 degree in the square from cellar to rafter, and then the Regional Gini Index is possible to be negative and invalid. In this article, a new model is put forward to solve this problem and used to measure the agglomeration level of high-technology industry in China from 1995 to 2005. Many valuable conclusion drawn from these positive studies, firstly, the level of agglomeration of high-tech industry in China is boosted remarkably. Secondly, the five subdivided industries of high-tech industry have big difference both in the agglomeration level and alteration trend from 1995 to 2005. And to reflect the effect of agglomeration, this study adopts II 第 II 页 theory of cointegration