汇率变动的贸易支效应问题研究——日本在日元升值条件下保持贸易收支盈余的策略及其对我国的启示.pdfVIP

摘 要 贸易收支平衡是经常账户收支乃至整个国际收支平衡的核心和基础。近些年来， 我国贸易收支盈余一直保持较大幅度的增长，支撑了整个国际收支盈余并带来了国际 储备的迅速增长，2004 至2006 年三年中，年均外汇储备增加2000 多亿美元。由此引 起了贸易赤字国对人民币汇率的不断责难。中国最大的贸易盈余来自美国，近四年多 来，以美国为首的发达国家强烈要求人民币升值，以消除彼此之间贸易收支的不平衡。 在国际的压力下，近年来人民币开始进入缓慢升值阶段，升值后对我国的贸易收支乃 至国际收支会产生什么样的影响作用？应该采取什么样的应对策略？这是本论文研究 的中心问题。文章首先回顾汇率变动的贸易效应理论和有关的研究文献；其次分析二 十世纪八十年代开始的日元升值与日本贸易收支盈余变动的关系，在此基础上总结在 日元升值条件下，日本保持出口强势和贸易收支盈余的经验；再次，回顾人民币汇率 变动对我国贸易收支的影响，并对人民币汇率变动对我国贸易收支的影响进行了实证 分析，结论是人民币升值对我国贸易收支有较显著影响；最后，就人民币升值条件下 如何保持我国的贸易收支平衡，以促进我国经济稳定高速发展提出对策建议。 关键词： 日元；汇率变动；贸易收支；价格弹性 I ABSTRACT The balance of trade is the basic point of regular account even the whole balance of payments. Recently, the surplus of trade has increased in a quite rapid pace, which brings a fast growth in surplus of balance of payments. From 2003 to 2006, the annual increase of foreign reserve is two hundred billion US dollars. So some countries attribute their deficit to the exchange rate of RMB. The greatest surplus of trade of China comes from the United States of America, that’s why some developed countries especially USA, have been forcing RMB to appreciate in recent 4 years. In their points, if RMB has a high appreciation, the trade deficit of USA can reduce, and the imbalance of trade between China and USA can be solved. Under the pressure of some countries, RMB went into a stage of appreciating slowly. It worths doing some research on how it will influence trade after its appreciation. And this is the most important question to be solved. In the 1980s, Japanese Yen had a experience of appreciation, during that period, Japan remained its strong trend of export and restrained its import. There was not a thorough change in the surplus of its trade. First, the article will review some theories of the effect of exchange rate ch