2010全国大学生数学建模竞赛论文解读.doc

分类号 O陕西师范大学学士学位论文基于蛛网模型理论的牛肉价格波动分析 08级数创班 学 号 提 交 时 间 二O一二年五月  基于蛛网模型理论的牛肉价格波动分析王丽莎 (数学与信息科学学院2008级数创班) 指导教师 石 茂 摘 要 本文主要研究了传统和推广蛛网模型基本理论及其稳定条件，并对牛肉价格的波动进行分析．首先，本文对选题背景和蛛网模型的背景做了介绍，建立了传统及推广的蛛网模型，运用差分方程性质分别讨论了传统及推广蛛网模型理论的稳定条件．其次，利用MATLAB分别对2000年－2008年和2000年－2010年的牛肉价格及产量进行拟合分别得出了传统蛛网模型，并分析了其稳定性．运用推广的蛛网模型稳定条件分别分析了2000年－2008年和2000年－2010年的牛肉价格及产量的稳定性．再次,先模型对不同时间段的稳定性分析结果，然后对比分析了传统及推广的蛛网模型对2000年－2008年牛肉价格波动分析的结．最后，从不同方面给出使牛肉市场更加稳定的建议，并指出了蛛网模型的优缺点． 关键词 蛛网模型；牛肉价格；对比分析；稳定性 Fluctuations in beef prices based on the cobweb model theory WANG Li-sha (Class Mathematical Innovation, Grade 2008, College of Mathematics and Information Science) Advisor: SHI Mao Abstract This paper mainly studied the traditions and promotion of the basic theory of the cobweb model and its stability conditions, and analyzed the beef price fluctua- teons. First of all, this article introduces the research background and the background of the traditional and promotion of the cobweb model. Use the nature of differential equations respectively discussed the traditions and promotion of the stability conditions of the cobweb model theory. Secondly, used MATLAB respectively fitted the beef prices and production of the year 2000-2008 and 2000-2010. Obtained the traditional cobweb model, and analyzed their stability. Used the promotion of the cobweb model stability conditions respectively analyzed the Beef prices and production stability of the year 2000-2008 and 2000-2010. Thirdly, comparative analyzed the traditional model for the Stability analysis of different periods of the time and then used the traditions and promotion of the cobweb model comparative analyzed the conclusion of the beef price of the year 2000-2008 and 2000-2010 fluctuations. Fourthly, different suggests of the more stable beef market were given, and pointed out the advantages and disadvantages of the cobweb model. Key words cobweb model; beef prices; comparative analysis; stab