第04章资本预算(武汉大学公司金融学)要点分析.ppt

公司金融 第四章 资本预算 一、资本预算基本方法 二、投资项目及其现金流 三、净现值法的实际运用 四、特殊情形下的投资决策 五、不确定性分析 What is Capital Budgeting? The process of identifying, analyzing, and selecting investment projects whose returns (cash flows) are expected to extend beyond one year. Project Evaluation: The application of one or more capital budgeting decision rules to estimated relevant project cash flows in order to make the investment decision. 一、资本预算基本方法 NPV（净现值） Payback Rule（投资回收期） Discounted Payback Rule（折现投资回收期） Average Accounting Return（平均会计收益率） Internal Rate of Return（内部收益率） Profitability Index（盈利指数法） CFO Decision Tools Net Present Value （净现值法） Definition: Present value of future cash flows discounted at the opportunity cost of capital minus (net of) the initial investment. (按照一定的折现率，将项目各年的现金流量折现到项目期初的现值累加值。) Intuitive definitions of NPV: Change in the firm’s value (shareholders wealth) from investing in the project. Amount that an outside investor would be willing to pay for the opportunity to carry-out the project. 净现值法：举例 Consider the following three possible investments, each with a discount rate of 10%: Movie: $1 million to build a mega-movie-theater. You plan to operate this theater for three years, OCF of $200,000 each year starting one year from now, and you believe that you can sell the theater for $500,000 at the end of the third year. Restaurant: A fast-food restaurant for $500,000, which will create OCF of $75,000 for each of the next 30 years starting one year from now. Mine: A gold mine that will cost $4 million to construct and will yield OCF of $3 million a year for four years starting one year from now. At the end of the fifth year, a $9 million charge for environmental cleanup is expected. 净现值法：举例 NPV of Movie Project : -$126,972.20 NPV of Restaurant Project : $207,018.60 NPV of Mine Project : -$78,695.57 Which of these projects should we implement? 判断准则： NPV大于等于0，项目可行； NPV小于0，拒绝项目。 相对比较时，NPV最大准则。 净现值曲线 NPV与折现率r的关系 1）NPV与r呈反向变化关系； 2）净现值曲线与r轴有一交点。 Goo