公司理财课堂教学第3部分资本预算解读.ppt

* Portfolio return in Boom: .6(15) + .4(10) = 13% Portfolio return in Normal: .6(10) + .4(9) = 9.6% Portfolio return in Recession: .6(5) + .4(10) = 7% Expected return = .25(13) + .6(9.6) + .15(7) = 10.06% Variance = .25(13-10.06)2 + .6(9.6-10.06)2 + .15(7-10.06)2 = 3.6924 Standard deviation = 1.92% Compare to return on X of 10.5% and standard deviation of 3.12% And return on Z of 9.4% and standard deviation of .48% * * * * Video Note: “Portfolio Management” looks at the value of diversification using Tower Records * * * * www: Click on the web surfer icon to go to where you can do searches for various betas. Students are often interested to see the range of betas that are out there. * Security K has the higher total risk Security C has the higher systematic risk Security C should have the higher expected return * * At same risk, asset A has greater return, so more people want to buy the asset, less people want to sell the asset. The price of this asset will arise. * * * * * If you face hard rationing, you need to reevaluate your analysis. If you truly estimated the required return and expected cash flows appropriately and computed a positive NPV, then capital should be available. * * * * * Click on each of the excel icons to see a chart of year-to-year returns similar to the charts in the text. The charts were created using the data in Table 10.1. * * * * * Remind students that the variance for a sample is computed by dividing by the number of observations – 1 The standard deviation is just the square root * * * * * Point out that one consequence of the wider availability of information and lower transaction costs is that the market will be more volatile. It is easier to trade on “small” news instead of just big events. It is also important to remember that not all available information is reliable information. It’s important to still do the research and not just jump on everything that crosses the news wire. The case of Emulex, discussed earlier, is an exc