畸形波生成条件预报方法的研究进展.pdfVIP

第30 卷 第3 期 海 洋 通 报 Vol. 30, No. 3 2011 年 06 月 MARINE SCIENCE BULLETIN Jun. 2011 畸形波生成条件预报方法研究进展 1 1 1 1 1 2 高志一 ，于福江 ，许富祥 ，李本霞 ，李洁 ，郎姝燕 （1. 国家海洋环境预报中心 国家海洋局海洋灾害预报技术研究重点实验室， 北京 100081 ；2. 国家海洋卫星应用中心， 北京 100081 ） 摘 要：近年海上事故调查结果表明很多海难事件都与畸形波袭击有关。随着我国经济进步，海上经济和军事活动越来越频繁，畸 形波对上述海事活动具有严重威胁并可能造成重大人员和财产损失。现有的数值或经验海浪预报方法不能有效地预报这种灾害性海 浪，亟需开发一种可靠的畸形波预报方法，这是海浪研究中面临的新课题。本文将对畸形波的实验和理论研究现状进行简要回顾， 并介绍目前畸形波生成条件预报方法的研究进展。 关键词：畸形波；调制不稳定性；灾害性海浪预报 中图分类号：P731.33 文献标识码：A 文章编号： 1001-6932(2011)03-0351-06 Progress in the method of freak wave condition forecasting 1 1 1 1 1 2 GAO Zhi-yi , YU Fu-jiang , XU Fu-xiang , LI Ben-xia , LI Jie , LANG Shu-yan (1. Key Laboratory of Research on Marine Hazards Forecasting, National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China; 2. National Satellite Ocean Application Service, Beijing 100081, China) Abstract ：Results of marine disaster research show that many shipwrecks were closely related to the attacks of freak waves. With the development of our country, the marine activities of economic and military became frequently. Consequently, the possibility of ships and drilling platforms threaten and destroyed by these disastrous waves is increasing. However, the traditional numerical and empirical methods are not able to forecast these extreme sea states. So, a reliable method of forecasting these events is required to be developed, wh