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ESTIMATION OF PHILLIPS CURVE IN INDIAN CONTEXT.pdf
Lipsa Ray, Int. J. Eco. Res., 2012, v3i2, 28-51 ISSN: 2229-6158
ESTIMATION OF PHILLIPS CURVE IN INDIAN CONTEXT
LIPSA RAY
2011
Department of Economics, School of Management,
Pondicherry, University,lpsray5@
Contact Details LIPSA RAY, C/0- BHABNI BHUSAN RAY, AT-
CHAULIAGANJ, MATHASAHI, PO- NAYABAZAR, DIST- CUTTACK, PIN-753004.
ODISSA
Abstract
This paper revisits the empirical existence of the Phillips curve in the Indian context. To estimate
the Phillips curve we need two variables – inflation and the output gap. In the case of India,
incorrect measurement of both variables causes much difficulty in estimating the Phillips curve. I
have used Hodrick-Prescott filter approach to find the output gap, ARMA ( 1) model for expected
inflation and finally, used Generalized Method of Moment estimation to estimate the Phillips
curve in Indian context. My result shows that the tradeoff between inflation and growth is
positive in India during the period of 1970 to 2010. Moreover, I also found that there is no long
run relationship between the variables viz; inflation, expected inflation and output gap .Because
all the variables are stationary at their original level, which proved that Phillips curve only in
short run, not in long run. In long run, it is vertical
1. Introduction
The short run relationship between real growth and inflation, which is referred to as Phillips
curve (Phillips, 1958) has been the subject of many studies. The rational behind Phillips curve is
that as aggregate demand increases, it causes an increase in demand for factors of production,
especially labour force pushing wages and employment upward. As wages rise, cost of
production rise
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