自然灾害软风险区划图模式研究.pdfVIP

14 6 Vo.l 14, No. 6 2005 12 JOURNAL OF NATURAL D ISASTERS Dec. , 2005 : 1004-45 4( 2005) 06- 0020- 06 1 2 张俊香 , 黄崇福 ( 1. , 5100 0; 2. , 1008 5) : , , , , , : ; ; : X4 : A Study on pattern of soft risk zon ing m ap of natu ral disasters 1 2 ZHANG Jun-xiang, HUANG Chong-fu ( 1. Guangzhou Institute of Geography, Guangzhou 5100 0, China; 2. Institute of D isaster and Public Security, College ofResources Science and Techno logy, Beijing N orm alUniversity, Beijng 1008 5, China) Abs tract: It is a deep-seated problem that how to express the mi precision of risk assessments. Th ispaper introduces fuzzy risk into the field of natural d isaster risk mapp ing, and exp lores the pattern of natural disaster risks under the conditions of mi precision of risk assessments. Th ispaper gives a k ind of risk m ap of natural disastersw ith h ierarchy and mu ltip le values. This k ind of risk map is called soft risk m ap due to that it is ach ieved by using the idea and method of the soft computing. Soft risk map of natural d isasters not only can express the mi precision of risk value estmi ates, but also can express the reliab ility of risk inform ation. Th is studyw ill offer a new idea for the upgrade of risk maps of natural disaster. K ey w ord s: natural d isaster; fuzzy risk; soft risk map , , , , , [ 1] , [ 2] , , : 2005- 10- 12; : 2005- 11- 10 : ( 403 1002) : ( 19 5- ), , , , , . 6