亚太秩序转化的历史经验与未来方向.pdfVIP

亚太秩序转化的历史经验与未来方向 钟飞腾 【摘要】本文旨在讨论未来十年亚太国际秩序调整的动力和演进方向。自从20 世纪7 0 年代以来亚太地区秩序发生过三轮大的调整，第一轮调整是美苏战略失衡引发推动中国与 美日同盟关系的和解，是地缘战略意义上的再平衡；第二轮发生于20 世纪80 年代后期到9 0 年代初，日本在经济上挑战美国主导地位，是一种基于共同安全框架的经济调整；最近这 一轮亚太地区秩序的调整直接起因于中国崛起，有可能改变美国主导的全球秩序。一方面， 此次秩序的调整是在和平发展成为全球秩序转换动力的背景下发生的，美国难以用战争手段 解决权势转移问题；另一方面，这一轮调整是在前两次的基础上发生的，结合了地缘政治和 经济两个方面。国际社会普遍以中美力量对比来推导未来的地区秩序，认为出现了经济上依 赖中国、安全上依赖美国的“两个亚洲”，但这一说法更多是对未来的推测，而不是对现实的 准确描述。中美尽管对未来亚太秩序的形成至关重要，但区域内其他国家更希望看到一种建 设性的中美关系，形成一个开放性的地区秩序。 【关键词】 地区秩序；亚太；两个亚洲；中美关系；开放性地区主义；功能性合作 【作者简介】钟飞腾，中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院副研究员。 The Historical Experience of the Transformation of the Asia-Pacific Order and Its Future Development Direction By Zhong Feiteng 【Abstract 】This paper attempts to examine the dynamics and evolutional way of the Asia-Pacific regional order. In general, there have been three waves of regional order change since the 1970s. The first kind of regional order adjustment was the reconciliation between China and the U.S.A.-Japan alliance, which was a geopolitical arrangement driven by the strategic imbalance between the U.S.A. and the Soviet Union. The second one took place in the late 1980s with the rise of Japanese economic power, and the United States having succeeded in persuading Japan to 49 upgrade the U.S.A.-Japan alliance without any great change in the regional order. The most recent regional order adjustment continues to develop and initially emerged due to the quick and continuous rise of China. Due to the great scale and multi-dimensionality of the rise of China, Asia-Pacific regional order adjustment might change the global order in the near future. On the one hand, the third wave of regional order adjustment is driven by peaceful dynamics, and the current American hegemony cannot