重庆市中小企业发展影响因素的实证研究 毕业论文.doc

重庆市中小企业发展影响因素的实证研究 ——基于面板数据模型分位数回归方法 摘要：看待中小企业对实体经济的增长，可从中小企业自身发展角度，在其他要素不变动情况下，研究中小企业增长各影响因素对其发展贡献率，采取措施促进中小企业发展。本文就促进中小企业发展角度，采用重庆市2003~2010年（平衡面板）按行业统计中小企业数据，用VA作为发展衡量指标，通过面板数据分析2003~2010年重庆市中小企业VA走势、中小企业占全市VA比值走势，本论文在认为中小企业发展提高自然融资问题得到改善与解决前提下，决定选择固定资产投资完成额，企业营业收入，就业率及上交税金共四个指标采用分位数回归探讨重庆市中小企业各因素对自身VA的贡献率。研究表明，伴随着中小企业增加值的增长，在不考虑外界因素波动的影响下，中小企业自身投资、竞争力效益的增长对增加值贡献率显著且呈现小倒“U” 型走势；就业率对其影响呈现出正“U”型走势，而企业上交税金则对VA贡献率较以往显著。所以，在促进中小企业发展时，不同时期中小企业采取不同政策。扩张规模时以中小企业技术水平为核心，使固定资产投资回报收益率、市场竞争力合理有效提高；另一方面，不同行业中小企业采取不同政策，着重扶持农、林、牧、渔，采矿业，适度开展对外贸易等，以促进重庆市中小企业均衡、综合发展。 关键词：中小企业 增长值 面板数据模型 分位数回归 Research on the Factors of VA growth in Small and Medium-sized Enterprises —Based on the Method of Quantile Regression for Panel Data Model Abstract: Based on the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, we should analysis the factors of VA growth in SME, by being researched form the development of SME itself. In this paper, firstly, we analysis the data from SME in Chongqing since 2003 to 2010(balanced data), describing the VA trend、(VA of SME)/( VA of Chongqing) trend、VA growth tendency in this period, then based on the method of quantile regression, we choose fixed assets investment、corporate operating income、employment rate and taxes to know how much they contribute to VA. And thus, we find that when the VA growing, their own investment、income are both doing well to the VA in most of this period, just like a upper right sloping straight line, only in 2009~2010, it glides a little. However, the employment rate does contrarily. And also, let us see the taxes, in fact, although it does not doing any to the VA, it doing much better than before. So, we can conclude that when promoting the development of SME, taking different measures to different SME in different development period. Just like when we expand the scale of SME, we can enhance the technical level to get a higher return on investment and income. And on the other side, taking different measures to different