首次评级技朮方案.ppt

Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Severe Weather Outline Team Composition Vision / Benefits Goals / Targets Key Information Gaps Key Solutions Outstanding R D Needs Summary Severe WeatherTeam Composition Daniel Meléndez (NWS/OST) Richard Okulski (NWS/OS) John Weaver (NESDIS) Don Burgess (OAR/NSSL) Robert Saffle (OST) Steve Weiss (SPC) Ron Przybylinski (WFO/STL) Severe WeatherVision / Benefits Severe WeatherGoals/Targets to FY 12 Severe Weather Goals/Targets to FY 12 Severe WeatherKey Information Gaps Severe Weather Key ST SolutionsCurrent Programmatic Phase Severe WeatherOutstanding RD Needs Improved Understanding of Tornado Formation Improved Understanding of Severe Weather Meteorology Objective Verification Improved Cloud-Scale Models Improved Situational Awareness Tools and Training Improved Understanding of Total Lightning Data in Severe Weather Forecasting Improved Understanding of Radar Polarimetry in Severe Weather Forecasting Improved Understanding of Predictability Limits Improved Understanding of Socioeconomic Impact Severe Weather Summary Severe WeatherSummary Severe weather warning and detection FY07 improvements will be driven by observational (radar) increases in resolution and coverage Need continued training and severe weather research as part of threshold progress Improved verification is critical to overall progress FAR is a consequence of verification accuracy so emphasis should be on detection Synoptic forecasting models on track Severe Weather BACKGROUND SLIDES Severe WeatherWhy FAR May Be at High Risk? WSR-88D Lesson: New technologies temporarily raise POD at the expense of FAR Long-term FAR reduction trails POD increase Vision 2025 – Storm Scale Modeling Severe WeatherPrimary Customers/Partners Severe WeatherKey Products/Services Severe WeatherS T Roadmap (Insert Spreadsheet) * * Daniel Meléndez NWS ST Committee September 17, 2002 qq群发 Dan Smith (SRH) Liz Quoetone (WDTB) John Ferree (WDTB) David Sharp (WFO/ML