竞争策略博弈论教程详解.ppt

〖管理经济学〗- 第八讲 企业管理中的竞争问题 董志勇 博士 副教授 中国人民大学经济学院 博弈论和策略行为 Game Theory Strategic Behaviors Lecture Plan/本讲计划 Game Theory Strategy Payoff Matrix Dominant Dominated Strategies Nash Equilibrium Maximin Strategy Mixed Strategy Strategic Behavior Elements of a Game Game has the following elements: Players: who is involved? Rules: who moves when? What do they know when they move? What can they do? Outcomes: for each possible set of actions by the layers, which is the outcome of the game Payoffs: what are the players’ preferences over the possible outcome? Strategy Payoffs 博弈论把人间一切竞争活动看成是玩策略游戏。这种策略游戏是在一定的游戏规则之下进行 它的两个最基本的概念是策略与支付矩阵 一种策略(Strategy)表示游戏参与者的一套运作计划和手段。如“降价15%”就是一种策略 收益矩阵(Payoff matrix)是表示游戏参与者在各种不同策略下的利润额的一套支付表格 寡头垄断，尤其是双寡头垄断竞争，特别适合使用博弈论研究 Strategy Payoffs Prisoner’s Dilemma(囚犯两难) 两个嫌犯被捕并受到指控，但除非至少一人招供犯罪，警方并无充分证据将其按罪判刑 警方将他们分开审讯（不能沟通），并对他们说明不同行动带来的后果。 如果二人都不坦白，只能判简单刑事罪，坐牢1个月 如果二人都坦白，两人都会定罪，判刑六个月； 如果其中一个坦白，另一个不坦白；那么坦白者马上释放（从宽）、不坦白者将会判刑九个月。 请问两个嫌犯该怎么办？ Strategy Payoffs Prisoner’s Dilemma(囚犯两难) 策略(Strategy): “沉默” “招认” 收益矩阵(Payoff Matrix)如下： Strategy Payoffs Prisoner’s Dilemma(囚犯两难) 囚犯两难的问题在现实中常常出现。 比如两家企业的价格战。 Strategy Payoffs 性别战博弈 (The Battle of Sex) 一男一女试图安排一个晚上的娱乐内容 选择（策略）：“歌剧”、“拳击”；不过男女有别 收益矩阵(Payoff Matrix)如下： Strategy Payoffs Other Examples Coordination games Smith and Jones are trying to decide whether to design the computers they sell to use large or small floppy disks Both players will sell more computers if their disk drives are compatible. Strategies: “Large” or “Small” Payoffs are as follows. Strategy Payoffs Other Examples Coordination games: payoff matrix Dominant Strategies (支配策略) We say a player has a dominant strategy if it is the strictly best response to any strategies the other players might pick. In the analysis of any game, the first step is to determine if any player has a dominant strategy. If such a strategy exists, then the outcome of the game should be easily determined, since the player will use the dominant st