浅析生猪期货交易对生猪产业的影响技术方案.doc

四川理工学院毕业论文（设计） 浅析生猪期货交易对生猪产业的影响 学 生：李勇 学 号：06061030309 专 业：国际经济与贸易 班 级：2006.3 指导教师：陈涛 四川理工学院经济与管理学院 二O一O年六月   中文摘要 我国生猪存栏量逐年增加，生猪的养殖成为了建设新农村的经济来源之一，但是我国生猪行业存在着很多问题，其中比较突出的就是我国生猪生产存在明显的不稳定性(波动)，这种不稳定性以价格和生产的周期运动模式显现出来。而周期是波动的生产和价格反复进行的历史运动模式。周期中内在的价格波动会给生猪生产者、加工者、投入要素供给者及消费者带来较高的代价。它将导致资源的浪费，给行业中的各类决策者带来不确定性，并影响从饲养经营到零售的整个产业。这种周期性波动是生猪现货市场自身无法克服的缺陷，如此反复循环，造成价格、生产市场供求关系的周期性波动，会给我国生猪养殖者带来巨大损失。 如何最大程度上控制和降低我国生猪生产者所面临的风险，调动他们养猪的积极性，直接影响着我国生猪行业能否加快发展，能否带动农业、农村经济的发展，能否最大限度地增加农民收入。本文通过对国外的生猪期货的产生及其作用，同时对我国生猪的现状等方面的分析得出了推出生猪期货交易，进一步完善生猪市场体系、稳定生猪生产与消费，切实提高养殖企业收入，推动生猪产业持续健康发展。 关键词：生猪期货，蛛网现象，生猪产业，农民增收 ABSTRACT Chinas pig herds increasing year by year, pig farming has become a source of building a new rural economic one, but there are a lot of our pig industry issues, prominent of which is Chinas live pig production obvious instability (volatility), which instability in prices and production of periodic motion pattern is revealed. The cycle is the production and price fluctuations in the history of repeated movement patterns. Price volatility inherent in the cycle will live pigs producers, processors, input suppliers and consumers through higher factor costs. It will lead to wastage of resources, types of industry decision-makers to create uncertainty and affect the business from breeding to the retail industry as a whole. Pig cycle pig producers, with very important implications. Because in the cycle, if the price drops to below the cost of its production, producers will likely face a loss. This cyclical fluctuations in the cash market pigs can not overcome its own shortcomings, such repeated cycling, resulting in prices, production cyclical fluctuations in market supply and demand, Chinas pig farmers will bring huge losses. How best to control and reduce our risks faced by pig producers, to mobilize the enthusiasm of their pigs, pig industry, a direct impact on our ability to accelerate the development, can promote agricultural