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PAGE 25
外文文献原稿和译文
原 稿
A VAT Revenue Simulation Model for Tax Reform
In Developing Countries
Glenn P .Jenkins
[Abstract]: In this paper, we develop a model to simulate policies and revenues for a value added tax (VAT) system in countries that have an indirect tax system containing sales, excise taxes, and tariffs. An application of the model is carried out for Nepal, which has recently introduced the VAT to replace its sales tax system and rationalize its excise and tariff systems. The study shows that, in a developing country, tax policies that might seem very realistic and politically noncontroversial are likely to yield a very narrow tax base. If a government of a developing country wants to rely more on the VAT over time, it must move aggressively to broaden the base and enhance compliance.
[Key words]: VAT revenue, Tax reform, model, Nepal
Ⅰ. INTRODUCTION
Import tariffs and excise taxes often constitute the most important revenue sources in developing countries. Because of growing concerns in recent years about economic efficiency and tax simplicity in a competitive and integrated world economy, many countries are lowering trade taxes and replacing distorted excise taxes with consumption-type VAT. With respect to the latter, one of the most important questions is the revenue potential of alternative designs of this new tax as governments attempt to replace or enhance the level of revenues generated by their current tax system.
The potential revenue which can be raised from the VAT depends on a number of factors, such as how broad the tax base will be and the extent to which businesses will comply with the tax. This issue has not been widely discussed in the public finance literature. The main purpose of this paper is to provide an analytical framework which can be used to estimate the potential tax base and associated revenues for a VAT in a typical developing country. The model developed for this purpose should be detailed enough to facilitate the
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