统计学知识(一类错误和二类错误).docVIP

Type I and type II errors In statistics, the terms Type I error (also, α error, or false positive) and type II error (β error, or a false negative) are used to describe possible errors made in a statistical decision process. In 1928, Jerzy Neyman (1894-1981) and Egon Pearson (1895-1980), both eminent statisticians, discussed the problems associated with deciding whether or not a particular sample may be judged as likely to have been randomly drawn from a certain population (1928/1967, p.1): and identified two sources of error, namely: (α) the error of rejecting a correct null hypothesis, and (β) the error of not rejecting a false null hypothesis In 1930, they elaborated on these two sources of error, remarking that in testing hypotheses two considerations must be kept in view, (1) we must be able to reduce the chance of rejecting a true hypothesis to as low a value as desired; (2) the test must be so devised that it will reject the hypothesis tested when it is likely to be false[1] When an observer makes a Type I error in evaluating a sample against its parent population, s/he is mistakenly thinking that a statistical difference exists when in truth there is no statistical difference (or, to put another way, the null hypothesis is true but was mistakenly rejected). For example, imagine that a pregnancy test has produced a positive result (indicating that the woman taking the test is pregnant); if the woman is actually not pregnant though, then we say the test produced a false positive. A Type II error, or a false negative, is the error of failing to reject a null hypothesis when the alternative hypothesis is the true state of nature. For example, a type II error occurs if a pregnancy test reports negative when the woman is, in fact, pregnant. Statistical error vs. systematic error Scientists recognize two different sorts of error:[2] Statistical error: the difference between a computed, estimated, or measured value and the true, specified, or theoretically correct