当前我国通货膨胀成因分析.docVIP

当前我国通货膨胀的成因分析 ——基于传导机制的统计分析模型 西安财经学院 赖明慧、孙若愚、张幪 目录 一、引言 2 二、文献综述 2 （一）西方学者通货膨胀成因理论综述 2 （二）国内学者通货膨胀研究现状 4 三、我国通货膨胀传导机制的基本描述 5 （一）通货膨胀的国际传导机制分析 5 （二）通货膨胀的国内传导机制分析 5 四、当前我国通货膨胀的成因分析 6 （一）变量选取 6 （二）数据选择 7 （三）时间序列平稳性检验 9 （四）格兰杰因果检验 10 （五）模型设计 11 （六）参数估计 12 （七）模型检验和修正 13 五、结论与建议 18 （一）结论 18 （二）政策建议 20 参考文献 21 附录 22 摘要 从2009年7月开始，我国此轮的通货膨胀逐步显现，2011年3月CPI上升至5.4%，国民切实感受到了通货膨胀的压力。本文在国内外学者研究的基础上，通过分析通货膨胀的传导机制，建立了带有滞后变量的差分方程模型，找出了当前我国通货膨胀的原因。研究结果发现，引起我国当前通货膨胀的主要原因是公众预期且该预期自变量的系数较大，说明此轮通货膨胀具有较强的惯性，这样的结果也符合目前政府实施的各种抑制通胀的手段收效甚微的现实。除此之外，原材料购进价格和外汇储备作为次要原因分别通过价格传导机制和货币供给传导机制引起我国本轮通胀的发生。最后本文依据估计模型所得到的结论给出了传导机制定性与定量分析的结构框图。本文的创新之处在于结合了统计回归方法和滞后变量模型估计方法进行实证分析，最终建立了动态的差分方程模型并作出了通货膨胀传导机制定量分析的结构图。 关键词：通货膨胀 传导机制 成因分析 差分方程模型 Abstract Chinese inflation has gradually appeared since July 2009. On March 2011, CPI rose to 5.4 percent. All the residents truly feel the pressure of inflation. In this paper, on the basis of domestic and foreign scholars, we have analyzed the inflation transmission mechanism and the establishment of differential equations with variable delay model to identify the reasons for Chinese current inflation. It was found that our current inflation is mainly due to public expectations, it leads to inflation inertia. And the large variable coefficient of expectation shows the strong inflation inertia. This result is also consistent with the current reality that the policy which published by government have little effect against the inflation. Meanwhile, both foreign exchange and raw material purchase price as secondary causes, respectively through the transmission mechanism of money supply and price transmission mechanism cause the current round of inflation in China. Finally, this paper gives qualitative and quantitative analysis of the transmission mechanism block diagram based on the estimated model. The innovation of this paper is to combine the statistical regression model to estimate the lagged variables and methods of empirical analysis. Moreover,