潲敢瑲-PEAKINGOFWORLDOILPRODUCTION.pptVIP

PEAKING OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION:IMPACTS, MITIGATION, RISK MANAGEMENT  Robert L. Hirsch, SAIC Roger Bezdek, MISI Robert Wendling, MISI Presentation to ASPO May 2005 Based on a Study for the U.S. Department of Energy THIS PRESENTATION THE PROBLEM LEARNING FROM EXPERIENCE TRANSPORTATION FLEET LIFETIMES MITIGATION OPTIONS THREE MITIGATION SCENARIOS PRUDENT RISK MANAGEMENT THE PROBLEM: PEAKING OF WORLD CONVENTIONAL OIL PRODUCTION(Not all of the latest forecasts) LEARNING FROM EXPERIENCE North American natural gas U.S. Lower 48 states oil production Economic impacts in 1973 1979 EXPERIENCE: NORTH AMERICAN NATURAL GAS Experts overestimated North American natural gas reserves future production as late as 2001. National Petroleum Council - 1999 DOE EIA - 1999 Cambridge Energy Research Associates - 2001 U.S. natural gas production is now flat / in decline. EXPERIENCE: U. S. LOWER 48 OIL PRODUCTION EXPERIENCE: MAJOR OIL INTERRUPTIONS TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT U.S. TRANSPORTATION FLEETS TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT CHANGES THREE MITIGATION SCENARIOS Scenario I - No action until peaking occurs Scenario II - Mitigation started 10 years before peaking Scenario III - Mitigation started 20 years before peaking Assumptions: All mitigation initiated immediately Crash program implementation MITIGATION OPTIONS Commercial or near-commercial technologies to impact LIQUID FUEL MARKETS Vehicle Fuel Efficiency Gas-To-Liquids (GTL) Heavy Oil / Oil Sands Coal Liquefaction Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) OPTIONS NOT INCLUDED Option Reasoning Nuclear Wind ……….. ELECTRIC / NOT LIQUID FUELS Solar Shale Oil……………... Not commercial Biomass……………. Not economic Hydrogen……………Neither ready nor economic DELAYED WEDGES APPROXIMATION WEDGE VALUES Preparation Impact 10 Years Delay