Chapter6MetricsDataAnalysisinTimeDomain.pptVIP

Chapter 6Metrics Data Analysis in Time Domain Instructor: Dr. REN Shengbing Email: rsb@mail.csu.edu.cn Key Topics Time Series Forecasting Signature Prediction Prediction Windows Process Characterization Control Charts Viewing in Time Metrics data, organized in the time domain in a framework, present a window into real world. Time domain analysis enables project teams to become sensitive to reality, responsive to situations, and self-organizing through continuous learning. Temporal Patterns in Metrics Plotting data in a chronological order, brings out the hidden temporal patterns. Time Series Forecasting Using time series analysis, events can be predicted based on historical trends. Forecasting requires that we identify structures in the data, which might repeat. With the information made available by forecasting, one stands to plan better and even avoid those marginal losses that are bound to be incurred without the benefit of advance information. Example: Bug arrival In fixed assets and facilities management, assets downtime (停工期) data can be plotted in time sequence. Signature Prediction Beyond the bug arrival statistics, signatures of bug population are captured periodically. Prediction Windows Prediction may be done by seeing patterns across projects or can be done locally within a project. Process Characterization Process Central Tendency Chart Process Variation Charts Plotting Central Value and Variation Together Process Central Tendency Chart A process behavior is characterized, in simple terms, by the mean value and the standard deviation. The first refers to the location of the process and the next represents variation of the process. When the process variations are quite large, central tendency is more meaningful with median values. Process Variation Charts Process variation is represented by standard deviation. There are occasions when process range (幅度) is used as a measure of variation in place of standard deviation. Plotting Ce